郭文章, 涂文校, 冯晔囡, 王晓琪, 谢怡然, 靳淼, 施国庆, 向妮娟. 2023年3月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(3): 249-252. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303150103
引用本文: 郭文章, 涂文校, 冯晔囡, 王晓琪, 谢怡然, 靳淼, 施国庆, 向妮娟. 2023年3月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(3): 249-252. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303150103
Guo Wenzhang, Tu Wenxiao, Feng Yenan, Wang Xiaoqi, Xie Yiran, Jin Miao, Shi Guoqing, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, March 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(3): 249-252. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303150103
Citation: Guo Wenzhang, Tu Wenxiao, Feng Yenan, Wang Xiaoqi, Xie Yiran, Jin Miao, Shi Guoqing, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, March 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(3): 249-252. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303150103

2023年3月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, March 2023

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2023年3月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
      方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
      结果  预计2023年3月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较2月增多。 目前我国人群依然处于前期自然感染新型冠状病毒后较高免疫保护效力水平,预计3月我国新型冠状病毒感染疫情维持低水平传播的可能性高。 流感病毒活动水平仍可能进一步上升,流行高峰将发生在3月中下旬左右,学校等人群密集场所聚集性疫情仍将高发。 预计3月学校、托幼机构等聚集性场所暴发诺如病毒疫情依然较多。
      结论  对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对季节性流感和诺如病毒肠炎予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan Province, the same below) in March 2023.
      Methods  Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.
      Results  It is expected that the number of reported public health emergencies in March 2023 may exceed that of February 2023. Currently, the Chinese people maintains a high level of natural immunity to SARS-COV-2 infection. Therefore, the spread of SARS-COV-2 infection in China may remain a low level in March. Influenza activity is likely to rise in March, and the epidemic peak might occur around mid-late March. Influenza outbreaks would maintain a high level in the schools and other crowded places. There might still be frequent norovirus outbreaks in kindergartens, primary and middle schools, nursery care centers and other gathering places in March.
      Conclusion  Special attention is given to COVID-19, and general attention is given to seasonal influenza and norovirus enteritis.

     

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