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蒋建国, 张艳秋, 何梦雅, 杜文琼, 徐吉英, 孙建伟, 孙定勇. 2006－2022年河南省老年肺结核时间序列分析及短期预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(7): 825-830. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310137
引用本文: 蒋建国, 张艳秋, 何梦雅, 杜文琼, 徐吉英, 孙建伟, 孙定勇. 2006－2022年河南省老年肺结核时间序列分析及短期预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(7): 825-830. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310137
shu
Jiang Jianguo, Zhang Yanqiu, He Mengya, Du Wenqiong, Xu Jiying, Sun Jianwei, Sun Dingyong. Time series analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly during 2006−2022 and short-term prediction in Henan province[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(7): 825-830. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310137
Citation: Jiang Jianguo, Zhang Yanqiu, He Mengya, Du Wenqiong, Xu Jiying, Sun Jianwei, Sun Dingyong. Time series analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly during 2006−2022 and short-term prediction in Henan province[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(7): 825-830. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310137
shu

2006－2022年河南省老年肺结核时间序列分析及短期预测

Time series analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly during 2006−2022 and short-term prediction in Henan province

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  分析2006—2022年河南省老年肺结核发病情况，预测2023—2025年河南省老年肺结核流行趋势。
      方法  收集2006—2022年共17年间“结核病管理信息系统”内的老年肺结核月登记率，建立数据库。 应用SPSS 27.0软件“专家建模器”模块筛选最优模型，以2006—2019年老年肺结核月登记率作为建模训练集，以2020—2022年老年肺结核月登记率作为模型验证集，对2023—2025年老年肺结核月登记率进行预测。
      结果  2006—2022年间河南省老年肺结核年均登记率为147.06/10万，整体呈下降趋势。 月登记率时间序列具有长期波动下降趋势和季节性特征，拟合度最好的模型是自回归求和移动平均模型（ARIMA）（1,0,0）（1,0,1）12，平稳R2和R2均为0.857，接近1，统计量Ljung-Box Q(18)值为12.156。每年3—6月和11月为老年肺结核的高发时间。 2023—2025年老年肺结核月登记率预测值呈小幅上升的趋势。
      结论  应用ARIMA模型，预测2023—2025年河南省老年肺结核月登记率将呈小幅上升的趋势，要建立老年肺结核的防控机制，加强早期发现与管理。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To understand the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) from 2006 to 2022 and predict its incidence trend from 2023 to 2025 in the elderly in Henan province.
      Methods  The monthly pulmonary TB registration rates in the elderly in Henan from 2006 to 2022 were collected from “Tuberculosis Management Information System” to establish a database. The “expert modeler” module of software SPSS 27.0 was used to screen the optimal model. The monthly registration rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly from 2006 to 2019 was used as a training set, while that from 2020 to 2022 was used as a validation set. Then the registration rates of pulmonary TB in the elderly from 2023 to 2025 was predicted by the optimal model.
      Results  The average annual registration rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly in Henan from 2006 to 2022 was 147.06/100000, showing a downward trend. The monthly registration rates had a long-term fluctuating downward trend and seasonal characteristics. The best fitting model was ARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,1)12 model. The stationary R2 and R2 were both 0.857, close to 1, and the Ljung-Box Q (18) value was 12.156. The annual incidence of pulmonary TB in the elderly was high during March to June and in November. The predicted incidence of pulmonary TB in the elderly shows a slight upward trend from 2023 to 2025.
      Conclusion  Applying the ARIMA model, the monthly registration rate of pulmonary TB in the elderly is predicted to show a small increase from 2023 to 2025. It is necessary to establish a prevention and control mechanism for pulmonary TB in the elderly and strengthen the early detection and management of pulmonary TB in this population.

     

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