李慧, 蒋丽娜, 曾维德, 钟革, 曾竣. 2008-2022年广西壮族自治区手足口病流行病学Joinpoint回归模型趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(2): 229-234. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310138
引用本文: 李慧, 蒋丽娜, 曾维德, 钟革, 曾竣. 2008-2022年广西壮族自治区手足口病流行病学Joinpoint回归模型趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(2): 229-234. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310138
Li Hui, Jiang Lina, Zeng Weide, Zhong Ge, Zeng Jun. Application of Joinpoint regression model in analyzing epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 2008−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(2): 229-234. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310138
Citation: Li Hui, Jiang Lina, Zeng Weide, Zhong Ge, Zeng Jun. Application of Joinpoint regression model in analyzing epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 2008−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(2): 229-234. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202303310138

2008-2022年广西壮族自治区手足口病流行病学Joinpoint回归模型趋势分析

Application of Joinpoint regression model in analyzing epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 2008−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解广西壮族自治区手足口病流行病学特征及变化趋势,为手足口病防控提供依据。
    方法 选取国家传染病报告信息管理系统、《广西统计年鉴》中2008—2022年广西壮族自治区手足口病病例资料和人口数据,应用Joinpoint回归模型(JRP)对年份、性别、月份、年龄别发病率进行比较分析。
    结果 2014、2017年为广西壮族自治区手足口病年报告发病率趋势变化转折点,2008—2014年呈快速上升趋势(β1=92.92,P=0.030);2014—2017年(β1=−44.55,P=0.833)、2017—2022年(β1=−70.71, P=0.163)均呈下降趋势。 男性年报告发病率高于女性,2014—2022年趋势变化呈快速下降趋势(β1=−69.28,P=0.038);女性趋势变化转折点及逐年趋势变化与总体年报告发病率相似。 各年龄组平均年报告发病率总体呈下降趋势[年度变化百分比(APC)=13.80%,P<0.001],2岁以下组呈上升趋势(APC=15.38%,P=0.809),2~至15~岁年龄组呈快速下降趋势(APC=42.47%,P<0.001),15岁以上年龄组呈极低位长拖尾现象(APC=5.30%,P=0.003)。 年平均月报告发病率呈“快升缓降”特征,5月为峰值,1—5月报告发病率呈上升趋势(APC=82.33%,P=0.017),5—12月呈下降趋势(APC=−15.59%,P=0.077)。
    结论 广西壮族自治区手足口病流行趋势依然严峻,应继续加强手足口病防控工作。 全人群均存在感染风险,尤其以男性、2岁以下儿童发病较高,夏季为发病高峰,应把控好关键期,对重点人群做好宣传教育及防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD.
    Methods The incidence data of HFMD and in Guangxi from 2008 to 2022 were collected from National Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and local population data were collected from Guangxi Statistical Yearbook, and Joinpoint regression model was used to compare and analyze the incidence rates by year, sex, month and age.
    Results From 2008 to 2014 the reported annual incidence of HFMD in Guangxi showed a rapid upward trend (β1=92.92, P=0.030), and it showed downward trends from 2014 to 2017 (β1=−44.55, P=0.833) and from 2017 to 2022 (β1=−70.71, P=0.163). The annual reported incidence rate in men was higher than that in women, and showed rapid downward trend from 2014 to 2022 (β1=−69.28, P=0.038). The incidence trend and change in women were similar to overall annual reported incidence. The average annual reported incidence in each age group showed downward trends annual percentage change (APC=13.80%, P<0.001), the incidence showed an upward trend in age group <2 years (APC) =15.38%, P=0.809), but a rapid downward trend in age group 2–15 years (APC=42.47%, P<0.001), The incidence trend age group over 15 years old showed a very low long tail (APC=5.30%, P=0.003). The average annual monthly reported incidence rate showed increase from January and peaked in May (APC=82.33%, P=0.017), then decreased from May to December (APC=−15.59%, P=0.077).
    Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Guangxi is still high, and the prevention and control of HFMD should continue to be strengthened. There is a risk of infection in all populations, especially in men and children under 2 years old, and the incidence peak is in summer, and health education and prevention and control measures should be conducted for key populations.

     

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