黄敏钢, 陈康康, 黄文, 陈奇峰. 2015-2022年浙江省绍兴市居民人均期望寿命变化趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(2): 241-245. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202304180173
引用本文: 黄敏钢, 陈康康, 黄文, 陈奇峰. 2015-2022年浙江省绍兴市居民人均期望寿命变化趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(2): 241-245. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202304180173
Huang Mingang, Chen Kangkang, Huang Wen, Chen Qifeng. Change trend of life expectancy of residents in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, 2015−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(2): 241-245. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202304180173
Citation: Huang Mingang, Chen Kangkang, Huang Wen, Chen Qifeng. Change trend of life expectancy of residents in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, 2015−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(2): 241-245. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202304180173

2015-2022年浙江省绍兴市居民人均期望寿命变化趋势分析

Change trend of life expectancy of residents in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, 2015−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析浙江省绍兴市户籍人口死亡情况、人均期望寿命变化趋势以及影响人均期望寿命的重点年龄段。
    方法 应用蒋氏简略寿命表、Joinpoint回归模型和Arriaga分解法对2015—2022年绍兴市户籍人口全死因监测数据进行分析,计算重大慢病过早死亡率、人均期望寿命的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)以及不同年龄组对人均期望寿命增量的贡献率。
    结果 绍兴市人均期望寿命增加具有阶段性特点,2015-2022年共增加1.52岁(AAPC=0.28%)。 2015-2020年人均期望寿命为79.37~81.55岁,具有上升趋势(APC=0.53%);2020-2022年人均期望寿命为81.55~80.89岁,具有下降趋势(APC=−0.34%),差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。 2015-2022年居民重大慢性病过早死亡率从12.46%下降至9.99%,共降低2.47%(AAPC=−3.61%)。 期望寿命增量贡献率前5位的年龄段依次为1~4(14.32%)、0~1(12.21%)、70~74(12.16%)、65~69(10.80%)、75~79(9.91%)岁年龄组,前5位总贡献率为59.41%。 男性群体中15~岁年龄组对期望寿命起负贡献作用,贡献率为−1.62%。
    结论 2015-2022年浙江省绍兴市人均期望寿命总体呈上升趋势,主要归因于婴幼儿与老年人死亡率的下降。 但85岁及以上年龄组、男性人群中15~岁年龄组对人均期望寿命增加起负贡献作用。 应采取针对重点人群、重点疾病的综合性防治措施,提高绍兴市居民人均期望寿命水平。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the death dtstus, the change trend of average life expectancy and the key age groups affecting average life expectancy in registered population in Shaoxing, Zhejiang province.
    Methods Jiang's brief life table, Joinpoint regression model and Arriaga decomposition method were used to analyze the total cause-of-death surveillance data in Shaoxing from 2015 to 2022. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of premature death rate from major chronic diseases and life expectancy and the contribution rate of different age groups to the increase of life expectancy were calculated.
    Results The average life expectancy in Shaoxing increased by 1.52 years from 2015 to 2022 (AAPC=0.28%). The average life expectancy was 79.37–81.55 years from 2015 to 2020, with an upward trend (APC=0.53%). The average life expectancy was 81.55–80.89 years from 2020 to 2022, with a downward trend (APC=−0.34%), but the difference was not significant (P>0.05). The premature death rate of major chronic diseases decreased from 12.46% in 2015 to 9.99% in 2022, a decrease of 2.47% (AAPC=−3.61%). The total contribution rate of the top five age groups for increased life expectancy was 59.41%. The top five age groups were age group 1–4 years (14.32%), age group 0–1 year (12.21%), age group 70–74 years (12.16%), age group 65–69 years (10.80%) and age group 75–79 years (9.91%). The age group 15–24 year of men had negative contribution to life expectancy with contribution rate of −1.62%.
    Conclusion From 2015 to 2022, the average life expectancy in Shaoxing generally showed an increase, which was mainly due to the decline in the mortality rate in infants and the elderly. However, the age group ≥85 years and age group 15–24-years of men had negative contribution to the increase in life expectancy. Comprehensive prevention and control measures targeting key populations and key diseases should be taken to further increase the average life expectancy of Shaoxing residents.

     

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