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杨建军, 冯燕, 梁舒, 刘新凤, 苏莉, 张晓曙, 刘东鹏. 2010－2021年甘肃省手足口病监测分析及模型预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(3): 318-323. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305220240
引用本文: 杨建军, 冯燕, 梁舒, 刘新凤, 苏莉, 张晓曙, 刘东鹏. 2010－2021年甘肃省手足口病监测分析及模型预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(3): 318-323. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305220240
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Yang Jianjun, Feng Yan, Liang Shu, Liu Xinfeng, Su Li, Zhang Xiaoshu, Liu Dongpeng. Surveillance and model prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Gansu, 2010−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(3): 318-323. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305220240
Citation: Yang Jianjun, Feng Yan, Liang Shu, Liu Xinfeng, Su Li, Zhang Xiaoshu, Liu Dongpeng. Surveillance and model prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Gansu, 2010−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(3): 318-323. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305220240
shu

2010－2021年甘肃省手足口病监测分析及模型预测

Surveillance and model prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Gansu, 2010−2021

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2010—2021年甘肃省手足口病流行特征及病原学组成，对2022—2024年甘肃省手足口病发病人数进行预测，为疾病的防控提供参考依据。
    方法 收集2010—2021年甘肃省手足口病的发病资料，用描述性流行病学方法分析其流行特征及病原学组成。 基于R语言以2010—2021年甘肃省手足口病月发病人数构建季节性自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型，对2022—2024年甘肃省手足口病发病人数进行预测。
    结果 2010—2021年甘肃省共报告手足口病病例126 265例，男女报告发病率分别为0.59%、0.41%，差异存在统计学意义（χ2=4 433.505，P＜0.05）；发病年龄主要集中在0～5岁，其中1～岁年龄组发病人数最多（29269例）；发病呈周期性流行，基本趋势为隔年出现发病高峰，2020年发病率最低，2019年发病率最高；全年有2个发病高峰，5—7月为主高峰，9—11月为次高峰。 病原构成方面，肠道病毒71型（EV71）所占比例逐渐降低，其他肠道病毒逐渐变为优势毒株；重症及死亡病例病原体以EV71为主；男女性别间病原构成比较，差异无统计学意义（P ＞0.05）。 构建季节性ARIMA模型ARIMA（4，0，1）（2，1，1）12，预测结果显示，2022—2024年甘肃省手足口病发病水平与2021年基本一致，预测发病人数与2021年接近，并保留以往双高峰发病的特点。
    结论  5岁以下婴幼儿是手足口病的高发人群。其他肠道病毒逐渐变为优势毒株，夏季高发。ARIMA（4，0，1）（2，1，1）12可以拟合甘肃省手足口病发病的演变趋势并进行短期预测。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot and month disease (HFMD) from 2010 to 2021, predict the incidence of HFMD from 2022 to 2024 in Gansu province and provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.
    Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Gansu from 2010 to 2021 were collected for a descriptive epidemiological analysis. The monthly number of HFMD cases in Gansu, from 2010 to 2021 was used to establish a seasonal autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) using the R programming language, and the number of HFMD cases in Gansu from 2022 to 2024 was predicted.
    Results A total of 126 265 cases of HFMD were reported in Gansu from 2010 to 2021. The incidence rate was 0.59% in men and 0.41% in women, respectively, the difference was significant (χ2=4 433.505, P＜0.05). The cases were mainly distributed in age group 0–5 years, with the highest case number in age group 1 year (2 9269 cases). The incidence peak occurred every other year. The incidence was lowest in 2020 and highest in 2019. The annual incidence showed two peaks, one was during May-July, anther one (sub-peak) was during September-November. The cases caused by enterovirus 71 (EV71) decreased gradually, other enteroviruses gradually became predominant. the severe and fatal cases were mainly caused by EV71. There was no significant difference in pathogen constituent ratio between men and women. Results from the seasonal ARIMA model ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 showed that the incidence level of HFMD in Gansu during 2022–2024 was similar to that in 2021 with similar case number and double incidence peaks (P ＞0.05).
    Conclusion The children under 5 years old were the population at high risk of hand, foot and mouth disease is mainly caused by virus, among which other enteroviruses gradually became predominant and has seasonal characteristics. The data predicted by the ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 model can fit well with the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease in Gansu Province and be used for short-term prediction.

     

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