Abstract:
Objective To predict and evaluate the incidence trend of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Jiaxing of Zhejiang by using Prophet model and provide new ideas and methods for influenza prevention and control and sentinel hospital surveillance.
Methods A Prophet model was constructed using the “forecast” and “prophet” packages in software R 4.2.2 to fit and predict the annual average proportion of ILI outpatient visits in total outpatient and emergency visits (ILI%) by using the surveillance data from sentinel hospitals for influenza in Jiaxing, Zhejiang province, from 2013 to 2022.
Results From 2013 to 2022, the average annual ILI% was 2.97% in sentinel hospitals in Jiaxing. The overall ILI% showed fluctuating patterns, with annual peak occurring during winte spring and a gradual decline thereafter. The fitting and prediction results of the Prophet model indicated that the fitted ILI% showed an upward trend in sentinel hospitals in Jiaxing from 2013 to 2021, and the average error rate of ILI% prediction was −16.73% for 2022. The ILI% fitted with surveillance data from national level sentinel hospitals first increased then decreased, with the average error rate of ILI% prediction as −14.85% for 2022, and all the prediction results were within the 95% confidence interval.
Conclusion The Prophet model fitting and prediction has relatively low fitting and prediction error and show good effects, which can be used for the prediction of ILI incidence.
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