严明明, 郭文章, 涂文校, 任瑞琦, 刘凤凤, 黄晓霞, 冯晔囡, 王霄晔, 笃梦雪, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2023年7月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(7): 765-770. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307180341
引用本文: 严明明, 郭文章, 涂文校, 任瑞琦, 刘凤凤, 黄晓霞, 冯晔囡, 王霄晔, 笃梦雪, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2023年7月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(7): 765-770. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307180341
Yan Mingming, Guo Wenzhang, Tu Wenxiao, Ren Ruiqi, Liu Fengfeng, Huang Xiaoxia, Feng Yenan, Wang Xiaoye, Du Mengxue, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, July 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(7): 765-770. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307180341
Citation: Yan Mingming, Guo Wenzhang, Tu Wenxiao, Ren Ruiqi, Liu Fengfeng, Huang Xiaoxia, Feng Yenan, Wang Xiaoye, Du Mengxue, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, July 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(7): 765-770. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307180341

2023年7月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, July 2023

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2023年7月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
      方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
      结果  预计7月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较6月略有上升,以猴痘、新型冠状病毒感染、登革热、手足口病和水痘等传染病类事件为主,高温中暑风险增加。 2023年6月全国新型冠状病毒感染疫情呈现波动下降趋势,XBB系列变异株为境内疫情主要优势流行株,当前疫情对医疗秩序和社会运行影响较小,仍需继续密切监测未来疫情进展。 我国猴痘疫情短期内呈现较为快速的发展态势,男男性行为人群中持续传播风险较高。 7月霍乱处于高发季节,可能出现散发病例或聚集性病例。 预计7月登革热报告病例数将逐渐增多,手足口病病例数将继续增加,但增幅减缓。 7月将继续迎来持续性高温天气,预计高温中暑风险上升。
      结论  对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对猴痘予以重点关注,对霍乱、登革热、手足口病、高温中暑予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in July 2023.
      Methods  Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.
      Results   It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in July 2023 would be slightly higher than that in June 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as mpox, COVID-19, dengue fever, hand, food and mouth disease, and chickenpox. The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China showed a fluctuating downward trend in June 2023, with XBB variants becoming the dominant prevalent strains of the epidemic. The current epidemic of COVID-19 had limited impact on medical service and social economy. However, closely monitoring the future progress of COVID-19 is still needed. The epidemic of mpox in China has shown a relatively rapid development in the short term, and the sustained transmission risk of mpox is high among men who have sex with men (MSM). July is the high incidence season of cholera, and sporadic cases or clusters might occur. It is predicted that dengue fever cases in July will increase gradually. The number of hand, food and mouth disease cases is expected to continue to increase in July, but with a slower increasing rate than last month. The risk of heat stroke is expected to rise, with long-lasting hot weather in July.
      Conclusion  Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, close attention should be paid to mpox, and general attention should be paid to cholera, dengue fever, hand, foot and mouth disease, and heat stroke.

     

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