傅克本, 陈琼, 胡碧波, 陈洁平. 2002-2021年浙江省宁波市居民溺水死亡流行特征及趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307260368
引用本文: 傅克本, 陈琼, 胡碧波, 陈洁平. 2002-2021年浙江省宁波市居民溺水死亡流行特征及趋势分析[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307260368
Fu Keben, Chen Qiong, Hu Bibo, Chen Jieping. Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and trend of drowning death in residents in Ningbo, Zhejiang, 2002−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307260368
Citation: Fu Keben, Chen Qiong, Hu Bibo, Chen Jieping. Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and trend of drowning death in residents in Ningbo, Zhejiang, 2002−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202307260368

2002-2021年浙江省宁波市居民溺水死亡流行特征及趋势分析

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and trend of drowning death in residents in Ningbo, Zhejiang, 2002−2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2002—2021年浙江省宁波市居民溺水死亡流行特征和趋势。
    方法 从浙江省慢性病监测信息管理系统导出2002—2021年宁波市户籍居民的溺水死亡资料,分析不同年龄、性别人群的溺水死亡率以及溺水死亡地点、时间分布;以2010年全国第六次人口普查人口为标准对溺水死亡率进行标化,拟合线性回归计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)判断其变化趋势。
    结果 2002—2021年宁波市居民溺水死亡5 190人,年均溺水粗死亡率为4.50/10万,其中男性为5.28/10万,女性为3.71/10万;溺水标化死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(AAPC=−5.02%,P<0.001),男性溺水标化死亡率AAPC为−5.37%,高于女性的−3.14%。 0~14岁、15~59岁、60岁以上年龄组分别占溺水死亡总人数的17.94%、35.34%、46.72%,3个年龄组的溺水死亡率均呈逐年下降趋势(AAPC=−12.64%、−1.76%、−3.08%;t=−18.525、−4.497、−7.155,均P<0.001)。 6—9月溺水死亡人数最多,分别为472人(9.09%)、780人(15.03%)、708人(13.64%)、415人(8.00%)。 85.82%的溺水死亡发生在自然水域,13.06%的发生在其他地点(水库、水渠等)。
    结论 2002 — 2021年浙江省宁波市居民溺水死亡呈下降趋势,针对目前溺水死亡流行特征应采取针对性的干预措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trend of drowning death in residents in Ningbo of Zhejiang province from 2002 to 2021.
    Methods The drowning death data in registered residents in Ningbo from 2002 to 2021 were collected from the Chronic Disease Surveillance Management System of Zhejiang Province for a descriptive analysis on drowning death. The mortality rate of drowning was standardized based on the population data of the sixth national census in China in 2010, and the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated by fitting a linear regression to determine its changing trend.
    Results A total of 5190 drowning deaths were reported in residents in Ningbo from 2002 to 2021, with an average annual crude mortality rate of drowning as 4.50/100 000. The average crude mortality rate of drowning was 5.28/100,000 in men and 3.71/100 000 in women. Over the past 20 years, the standardized mortality rate of drowning showed a decreasing trend year by year (AAPC=−5.02%, P<0.001) and the AAPC of the standardized drowning mortality rate in men was −5.37% (P<0.001), higher than −3.14% in women (P=0.019). The drowning deaths in age groups 0−14, 15−59 and >60 years accounted for 17.94%, 35.34% and 46.72% of the total, and the mortality rate of drowning in the three age groups showed downward trends year by year, (AAPC=−12.64%, −1.76%, −3.08%; t=−18.525, −4.497, −7.155, all P<0.001). The highest number of drowning deaths were recorded in July (780 deaths, 15.03%), followed by August (708 deaths 13.64%), June (472 deaths, 9.09%) and September (415 deaths, 8.00%). Up to 85.82% of the drowning deaths occurred in natural waters and 13.06% in other locations (reservoirs, drains, etc.).
    Conclusion The incidence of drowning deaths in residents in Ningbo showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2021, and targeted intervention measures should be taken according to the epidemiological characteristics of drowning death.

     

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