叶振淼, 郑宇航, 樊丽辉, 姜雪霞, 张默涵, 罗永园, 谢轶敏, 金茜. 2014-2022年浙江省温州市结直肠癌死亡趋势及寿命损失分析[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308240443
引用本文: 叶振淼, 郑宇航, 樊丽辉, 姜雪霞, 张默涵, 罗永园, 谢轶敏, 金茜. 2014-2022年浙江省温州市结直肠癌死亡趋势及寿命损失分析[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308240443
Ye Zhenmiao, Zheng Yuhang, Fan Lihui, Jiang Xuexia, Zhang Mohan, Luo Yongyuan, Xie Yimin, Jin Xi. Analysis on colorectal cancer mortality and related life lost in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 2014−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308240443
Citation: Ye Zhenmiao, Zheng Yuhang, Fan Lihui, Jiang Xuexia, Zhang Mohan, Luo Yongyuan, Xie Yimin, Jin Xi. Analysis on colorectal cancer mortality and related life lost in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 2014−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202308240443

2014-2022年浙江省温州市结直肠癌死亡趋势及寿命损失分析

Analysis on colorectal cancer mortality and related life lost in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 2014−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2014—2022年浙江省温州市结直肠癌死亡水平、变化趋势及寿命损失情况,为制定结直肠癌防控措施提供科学依据。
    方法 通过温州市慢性病监测管理信息系统收集2014—2022年温州市结直肠癌死因监测资料进行分析,计算死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在减寿年(PYLL)等指标,运用年度变化百分比(APC)分析结直肠癌死亡的时间变化趋势,采用灰色动态模型 GM(1,1)进行预测。
    结果 2014—2022年温州市结直肠癌累计死亡11 113例,占所有癌症死亡的9.13%,死因顺位一直保持在第4位。 2014—2022年温州市结直肠癌平均粗死亡率为15.13/10万,标化死亡率为11.24/10万,粗死亡率呈上升趋势(APC=4.47%,P<0.001),标化死亡率呈稳定状态(APC=0.97%,P=0.039)。 男性平均粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为18.28/10万、13.28/10万,均高于女性的11.75/10万、8.88/10万(均P<0.05)。 城市地区结直肠癌死亡率高于农村地区(χ2=21.569,P<0.001)。 结直肠癌年龄别死亡率随年龄增加呈现上升趋势(趋势χ2=33 278.865,P<0.001),50岁以上人群死亡率增长更加明显,85~岁年龄组死亡率最高,达到182.04 /10万。 各年龄组死亡率随时间未出现变化趋势(均P>0.05)。 2014—2022年温州市结直肠癌死亡造成的PYLL为50 895.00人年,PYLL率0.75‰,男性PYLL、PYLL率均高于女性。 PYLL率随年龄增长先升后降,高峰在60~岁年龄组。 预测未来5年结直肠癌粗死亡率仍呈上升趋势,2027年将达到23.30/10 万。
    结论 2014—2022年浙江省温州市居民结直肠癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势,男性、中老年人和城市地区居民是高危人群。 随着人口老龄化的加速,疾病负担将会越来越严重,应针对危险因素进行干预,改变不健康的生活方式和饮食结构,加强结直肠癌筛查,降低结直肠癌的发病率和死亡率。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the level, trend of colorectal cancer mortality and years of life lost due to colorectal cancer in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, from 2014 to 2022, and provide evidence for the development of colorectal cancer prevention and control measures.
    Methods The mortality data of colorectal cancer in Wenzhou from 2014 to 2022 were collected from Wenzhou Chronic Disease Surveillance and Management Information System for a descriptive analysis. The crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, and potential years of life lost (PYLL) were calculated. The annual percentage change (APC) was used to analyze the temporal trends in colorectal cancer mortality, and a grey dynamic model GM (1, 1) was used for the prediction of colorectal cancer mortality.
    Results From 2014 to 2022, A total of 11113 deaths of colorectal cancer were reported in Wenzhou, accounting for 9.13% of total cancer deaths and ranking fourth of the leading causes of death. The average crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of colorectal cancer were 15.13/100000 and 11.24/100000, respectively. The crude mortality rate showed an increasing trend (APC=4.47%, P<0.001), and the standardized mortality rate was stable (APC=0.97%, P=0.039).The average crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate in men (18.28/100000 and 13.28/100000) were higher than that in women (11.75/100000 and 8.88/100000) (P<0.05). The mortality rate of colorectal cancer was higher than in urban area than in rural area (χ2=21.569, P<0.001). Age-specific mortality rate for colorectal cancer increased with age (trend χ2=33 278.865, P<0.001), with a significant increase in age group >50 years. The highest mortality rate was observed in age group ≥85 years, reaching 182.04/100000. There was no significant change in mortality rate in different age groups over time (P>0.05). The PYLL caused by colorectal cancer deaths was 50895.00 person-years, with a PYLL rate of 0.75‰. The PYLL rate and PYLL were higher in men than in women. The PYLL rate increased with age, and decreased after peaking in age group 60–69 years. It is predicted that the crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer would increase in the following 5 years, reaching 23.30/100000 by 2027.
    Conclusion The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer showed an increasing trend in Wenzhou from 2014 to 2022, and men, middle-aged and elderly individuals and urban residents were at higher risk. In the context of accelerated population aging, the disease burden will become more severe. It is necessary to conduct targeted intervention, promote healthy lifestyle and dietary and strengthen colorectal cancer screening to reducing the morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer.

     

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