兰雪源, 聂晓勇, 原琛利, 解雁茹, 孟珺, 张飞, 冯立忠. 2013-2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS流行特征分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(6): 699-704. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309130468
引用本文: 兰雪源, 聂晓勇, 原琛利, 解雁茹, 孟珺, 张飞, 冯立忠. 2013-2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS流行特征分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(6): 699-704. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309130468
Lan Xueyuan, Nie Xiaoyong, Yuan Chenli, Xie Yanru, Meng Jun, Zhang Fei, Feng Lizhong. Epidemiological characteristics of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Shanxi based on Joinpoint regression model, 2013−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(6): 699-704. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309130468
Citation: Lan Xueyuan, Nie Xiaoyong, Yuan Chenli, Xie Yanru, Meng Jun, Zhang Fei, Feng Lizhong. Epidemiological characteristics of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Shanxi based on Joinpoint regression model, 2013−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(6): 699-704. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309130468

2013-2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS流行特征分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型

Epidemiological characteristics of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Shanxi based on Joinpoint regression model, 2013−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2013—2022年山西省新报告人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)流行特征,为艾滋病防控工作提供参考依据。
    方法 从全国健康保障疾控信息系统下载2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS个案信息,对新报告HIV/AIDS病例特征进行统计学描述和分析,使用 Joinpoint 回归模型分析其变化趋势。
    结果 2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS共12 983例,以性传播为主,男女性别比达6.19∶1(11 178∶1 805),平均年龄(39.65±14.49)岁,多来源于医疗机构。 趋势分析显示,2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS总体呈现缓慢上升趋势(AAPC=5.82%,P=0.008),50~岁年龄组中男性总体呈现上升趋势(AAPC=8.94%,P=0.001),女性呈现逐年上升趋势(APC=10.05%,P=0.001);性传播感染途径构成比中,0~24岁年龄组异性和同性性传播均呈现下降趋势(APC=−12.13%,P<0.001;APC=−6.87%,P<0.001),50~岁年龄组异性和同性性传播均呈现上升趋势(APC=7.26%,P<0.001;APC=16.70%,P<0.001);各地区新发现率变化趋势不一致;首次CD4细胞计数 < 200/μL的新报告病例构成比呈现逐年单调缓慢上升的趋势(APC=3.94%,P<0.001)。
    结论 2013—2022年山西省新报告HIV/AIDS呈增长趋势,50~岁老年人上升趋势较快和晚发现情况较严重,建议重点关注50~岁老年人,采取精准干预措施,扩大艾滋病筛查力度,有效遏制艾滋病传播。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of newly reported human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) cases in Shanxi province during 2013−2022 and provide theoretical evidence for the prevention and control of AIDS.
    Methods The information of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Shanxi from 2013 to 2022 were downloaded from the National Health Security and Disease Control Information System, and the characteristics of the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases were statistically described and analyzed, and the trends were analyzed by using Joinpoint regression model.
    Results A total of 12983new HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Shanxi from 2013 to 2022. The cases were mainly caused by sexual transmission, the male to female ratio of the cases was 6.19∶1 (11178∶1 805), and the average age of the cases was (39.65±14.49) years. The cases were mainly reported by medical institutions. The trend analysis showed that the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases from 2013 to 2022 in Shanxi showed a slight increasing (AAPC=5.82%, P=0.008). In the age group >50 years, the cases showed an increasing trend in men (AAPC=8.94%, P=0.001), and an increasing trend by year in women (APC=10.05%, P=0.001). In sexual transmission, the heterosexual transmission and homosexual transmission all decreased in age group 0−24 years (APC=−12.13%, P<0.001; APC=−6.87%, P<0.001), but the heterosexual transmission and homosexual transmission all increased in age group >50 years (APC=7.26%, P<0.001; APC=16.70%, P<0.001). The area specific trend of new detection rate was inconsistent; and the proportion of newly reported cases with the first CD4 cell count <200/μL showed a slight increasing trend by year (APC=3.94%, P<0.001)
    Conclusion From 2013 to 2022, newly reported HIV/AIDS cases showed an increasing trend in Shanxi. More cases aged >50 years were reported and more cases were not detected in a timely manner. It is suggested to pay close attention to the elderly, take precise intervention measures and expand the coverage of AIDS screening to effectively curb the spread of AIDS.

     

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