李菲, 母茂琪, 易海杰. 2016-2021年山西省长治市食管癌发病风险时空分布及地理因素相关性研究[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309260505
引用本文: 李菲, 母茂琪, 易海杰. 2016-2021年山西省长治市食管癌发病风险时空分布及地理因素相关性研究[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309260505
Li Fei, Mu Maoqi, Yi Haijie. Spatiotemporal distribution of incidence risk of esophageal cancer and related geographical factors in Changzhi, Shanxi, 2016−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309260505
Citation: Li Fei, Mu Maoqi, Yi Haijie. Spatiotemporal distribution of incidence risk of esophageal cancer and related geographical factors in Changzhi, Shanxi, 2016−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202309260505

2016-2021年山西省长治市食管癌发病风险时空分布及地理因素相关性研究

Spatiotemporal distribution of incidence risk of esophageal cancer and related geographical factors in Changzhi, Shanxi, 2016−2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2016—2021年山西省长治市食管癌发病风险的时空变化规律和地理影响因素,为开展预防控制提供参考。
    方法 利用2016—2021年山西省长治市各县(区)食管癌发病率建立贝叶斯时空模型,以可能影响食管癌患病风险的地理因素年均气温、年均降水量、海拔高度、坡向、植被覆盖率、土壤有机质、土壤pH作为协变量进行回归分析。
    结果 2016—2021年长治市食管癌男性发病例数为女性的1.68倍,且各年份男性发病数均高于女性;发病率在空间上呈显著聚集状态(Moran's I指数为0.249,P=0.031),时间上整体呈下降趋势。 地理因素的回归分析显示,年平均气温[相对危险度(relative risk,RR)=1.314,95%置信区间(confidence interval,CI): 1.093~1.496]、坡向 (RR=1.320,95%CI: 1.179~1.456)、海拔高度(RR=1.185,95%CI: 1.028~1.357)和土壤pH(RR=1.345,95%CI: 1.207~1.474)与食管癌发病风险均呈正相关,植被覆盖度(RR=0.460,95%CI: 0.215~0.683)与食管癌发病风险则呈负相关。
    结论 山西省长治市食管癌发病率具有南高北低的时空分布格局,且与年均气温、坡向、海拔高度、土壤pH和植被覆盖度等地理因素密切相关,高风险区域主要集中于南部县(区),建议食管癌一级预防策略应考虑相关危险环境因素。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of incidence risk ofesophageal cancer and related geographical influencing factors risk in Changzhi, Shanxi province, from 2016 to 2022, and provide reference for the prevention and control of esophageal cancer.
    Methods A Bayesian spatiotemporal model was established by using the incidence data of esophageal cancer in different districts and counties of Changzhi from 2016 to 2021, and a regression analysis was carried out by using geographical factors which might affect the incidence of esophageal cancer as covariates, such as average annual temperature, average annual precipitation, altitude, slope aspect, vegetation coverage, soil organic matter and soil pH.
    Results The case count of esophageal cancer was 1.68 times higher in men than in women in Changzhi from 2016 to 2021, and the annual case counts were all higher in men than in women. From 2016 to 2021, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Changzhi showed a significant spatial clustering (Moran's I index=0.249, P=0.031) and the incidence rate declined over time. The regression analysis on geographical factors showed that the annual mean temperature relative risk (RR)=1.314, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.093–1.496, slope aspect (RR=1.320, 95%CI: 1.179–1.456), altitude (RR=1.185, 95%CI: 1.028–1.357) and soil pH (RR=1.345, 95%CI: 1.207–1.474) were positively correlated with the risk for esophageal cancer, and vegetation coverage (RR=0.460, 95%CI: 0.215–0.683) was negatively correlated with the risk for esophageal cancer.
    Conclusion The incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Changzhi has a spatiotemporal distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north, and is closely related to geographical factors such as average annual temperature, slope aspect, altitude, soil pH and vegetation coverage. The high-risk areas are mainly in the southern counties, suggesting that related risk environmental factors should be considered in the primary prevention and control of esophageal cancer.

     

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