2018－2022年内蒙古自治区兴安盟结核病流行特征及发病预测模型应用

孙博; 滕冲; 冯丽平; 朱含芳; 欧喜超; 李永慧; 黄欣宇; 彩花

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202310240562

2018－2022年内蒙古自治区兴安盟结核病流行特征及发病预测模型应用

Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis and application of incidence prediction model in Hinggan league of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 2018−2022

摘要

摘要:
目的分析2018—2022年内蒙古自治区兴安盟地区结核病疫情流行变化特征，为兴安盟地区结核病防控提供科学依据。
方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息管理系统导出2018—2022年兴安盟6个县（市、旗）报告结核病患者相关资料，分析该地区近5年结核病报告发病率的变化趋势，并建立季节性自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）预测短期发病情况。
结果 2018—2022年，兴安盟地区累计报告结核病患者5909例，平均报告发病率77.26/10万，报告发病率呈明显下降趋势（趋势χ²=222.977，P＜0.001），各县（市、旗）报告发病率差异有统计学意义（χ²=340.103，P＜0.001）。病原学阳性患者平均报告发病率为31.93/10万，呈上升趋势（趋势χ²=137.504，P＜0.001）；报告发病主要集中在3—5月和11月至次年1月；男女性别比为2.24∶1，50岁及以上人群发病率最高（120.18/10万）；职业分布以农牧民群体占比最高（62.95%，3720/5909）。以2012—2021年结核病发病数建立的季节性ARIMA（0，1，1）（0，1，2）₁₂模型具有较好的预测效果，总体相对误差为6.14%，6个月预测值95%置信区间均涵盖真实值。
结论兴安盟地区结核病报告发病率总体呈逐年下降趋势，各县（市、旗）之间发病率有明显差异，男性、老年人、农牧民等是结核发病重点人群，应有针对性的加强重点人群的防控措施。建立的季节性ARIMA（0，1，1）（0，1，2）₁₂模型可用于兴安盟地区结核病短期发病预测。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Hinggan league, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2018 to 2022, and provide scientific basis for the precise prevention and control of pulmonary TB in Hinggan league.
Methods The relevant data of registered pulmonary TB patients in six counties (banners) of Hinggan league from 2018 to 2022 were collected from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The incidence trend of reported pulmonary TB in the past five years was analyzed, and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established to predict the short-term incidence.
Results From 2018 to 2022, a total of 5909 pulmonary TB cases were reported in Hinggan league, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 77.26/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed a significant downward trend (trend χ²=222.977, P<0.001) in the past five years. There were significant differences in the reported incidence rate among counties (banners) (χ²=340.103, P<0.001). The average reported incidence rate of pathogenic positive pulmonary TB was 31.93/100000, showing an upward trend (trend χ²=137.504, P<0.001). The cases mainly occurred during March-May and November-January. The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.24∶1, and the incidence rate in people aged ≥50 years was highest (120.18/100000). The cases in farmers and herdsmen accounted for the highest proportion (62.95%, 3720/5909). The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)₁₂ model based on pulmonary TB case data during 2012−2021 showed good prediction results, the relative error was 6.14% and 95% confidence interval of the predicted value of each month covered the actual value.
Conclusion The reported incidence of pulmonary TB in Hinggan league showed a downward trend year by year, and there were significant differences among counties (banners). Men, the elderly, farmers and herdsmen were at high risk for pulmonary TB, so targeted prevention and control should be strengthened. The established seasonal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)₁₂ model can be used for the prediction of the short-term incidence of pulmonary TB in Hinggan league.

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