基于动力学模型预测世界卫生组织推荐耐多药/利福平耐药结核病治疗方案对我国结核病流行影响的研究

王廉皓; 李涛; 腊彬; 王适意; 阮云洲; 苏伟; 成诗明; 李仁忠; 贾忠伟

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202311240633

基于动力学模型预测世界卫生组织推荐耐多药/利福平耐药结核病治疗方案对我国结核病流行影响的研究

Impact of World Health Organization-recommended multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis treatment regimen on tuberculosis epidemic in China based on a dynamic model

摘要

摘要:
目的评估在2025年实施世界卫生组织推荐的耐多药/利福平耐药结核病（MDR/RR-TB）治疗方案对我国终止结核病流行目标的影响。
方法基于2015—2021年中国结核病流行病学数据和前期研究数据，利用传染病动力学模型预测该治疗方案对结核病和MDR/RR-TB传播、发病、治愈和死亡的影响。
结果该治疗方案的实施可使未来十年（2025—2035年）我国累计增加11.61万例治疗成功的MDR/RR-TB结核病患者，减少5.82万例因MDR/RR-TB死亡患者，避免7.57万人感染耐多药/利福平耐药结核分枝杆菌和1.25万MDR/RR-TB潜伏感染者发病。
结论基于该方案对MDR/RR-TB的治疗效果，其应用具有降低我国MDR/RR-TB流行的公共卫生学意义。

Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the impact of World Health Organization(WHO)-recommended multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) treatment regimen on China's effort of ending TB epidemic if it is applied in 2025.
Methods Based on the epidemiological data of TB in China from 2015 to 2021 and previous research data, the impact of WHO-recommended regimen on the spread, incidence, cure and death of TB and MDR/RR-TB in China was predicted by using infectious disease dynamics model.
Results If the regimen is applied in 2025, another 116,100 MDR/RR-TB patients will be successfully cured, resulting in decreases of 58 200 deaths, 75 700 cases and 12 500 cases from latent infections of MDR/RR-TB in the next decade (2025−2035).
Conclusion Based on the analysis on its efficacy in the treatment of MDR/RR-TB, the application of WHO-recommended regimen has public health significance in the prevention and control of MDR/RR-TB in China.

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