滕岱君, 房元圣, 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 赵青, 张亦弛, 薛秀丽, 孙静, 戚晓鹏. 2024年3月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202404110220
引用本文: 滕岱君, 房元圣, 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 赵青, 张亦弛, 薛秀丽, 孙静, 戚晓鹏. 2024年3月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202404110220
Teng Daijun, Fang Yuansheng, Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Zhao Qing, Zhang Yichi, Xue Xiuli, Sun Jing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in March 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202404110220
Citation: Teng Daijun, Fang Yuansheng, Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Zhao Qing, Zhang Yichi, Xue Xiuli, Sun Jing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in March 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202404110220

2024年3月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in March 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年3月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2024年3月监测到25种传染病在全球46个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件1个,中风险事件21个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件13个,中风险事件39个。
    结论 建议重点关注日本A组链球菌咽喉炎疫情,一般关注南美洲和亚洲部分国家的登革热,日本的发热伴血小板减少综合征,柬埔寨和刚果(金)的猴痘,非洲部分国家的霍乱,巴基斯坦的脊髓灰质炎,印度的凯萨努森林病,南美洲部分国家的寨卡病毒病可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注日本的A组链球菌咽喉炎疫情,尼日利亚的白喉疫情,南美洲和亚洲部分国家的登革热疫情,非洲部分国家的霍乱疫情以及尼日利亚的拉沙热疫情,一般关注巴西的奥罗普切热疫情,非洲部分国家的白喉疫情,南美洲、亚洲和非洲部分国家的登革热疫情,柬埔寨和刚果(金)的猴痘疫情,埃塞俄比亚、科摩罗、海地和津巴布韦的霍乱疫情,非洲多国的脊髓灰质炎疫情,印度的凯萨努森林病疫情,孟加拉国的尼帕病毒感染疫情,阿根廷的西方马脑炎疫情和南美洲部分国家的霍乱疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in March 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In March 2024, 25 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 46 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 1 high-risk event and 21 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 13 high-risk events and 39 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the outbreak of Group A streptococcal pharyngitis in Japan, and to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in some countries in South America and Asia, fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Japan, mpox in Cambodia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, cholera in some countries in Africa, polio in Pakistan, Casanou forest disease in India, and possible import risks from Zika virus disease in some countries in South America. International travelers are advised to focus on Group A streptococcal pharyngitis outbreak in Japan, diphtheria outbreak in Nigeria, dengue fever outbreak in some South America and Asian countries, cholera outbreak in some African countries, and Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria, and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by the Oroche fever outbreak in Brazil, diphtheria outbreaks in some African countries, dengue fever outbreaks in some South America, Asia, and African countries, Mpox outbreaks in Cambodia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, cholera outbreaks in Ethiopia, Comoros, Haiti, and Zimbabwe, polio outbreaks in multiple African countries, Kyasanur Forest disease outbreaks in India, Nipah virus infections in Bangladesh, Western equine encephalitis outbreaks in Argentina, and cholera outbreaks in some South American countries may pose infection risks.

     

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