孙静, 房元圣, 滕岱君, 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 赵青, 张亦弛, 薛秀丽, 戚晓鹏. 2024年4月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(5): 531-535. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202405220295
引用本文: 孙静, 房元圣, 滕岱君, 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 赵青, 张亦弛, 薛秀丽, 戚晓鹏. 2024年4月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(5): 531-535. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202405220295
Sun Jing, Fang Yuansheng, Teng Daijun, Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Zhao Qing, Zhang Yichi, Xue Xiuli, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in April 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(5): 531-535. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202405220295
Citation: Sun Jing, Fang Yuansheng, Teng Daijun, Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Zhao Qing, Zhang Yichi, Xue Xiuli, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in April 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(5): 531-535. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202405220295

2024年4月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in April 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年4月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2024年4月监测到29种传染病在全球43个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件27个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件22个,中风险事件33个。
    结论 建议一般关注南北美洲、非洲、大洋洲和亚洲部分国家的登革热,柬埔寨和美国的猴痘,埃塞俄比亚、也门和莫桑比克的霍乱,巴西的黄热病,巴西和阿根廷的基孔肯雅热,格鲁吉亚、捷克、俄罗斯和拉脱维亚的百日咳,俄罗斯的麻疹可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注中国周边亚洲国家(越南、泰国、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、尼泊尔、马来西亚、斯里兰卡和新加坡)、马里、阿根廷、巴西、法国和秘鲁的登革热疫情,也门、索马里、刚果(金)和莫桑比克的霍乱疫情,阿根廷和巴西的基孔肯雅热,尼日利亚的拉沙热,亚美尼亚的猩红热以及巴西的黄热病疫情,一般关注格鲁吉亚、捷克、俄罗斯、拉脱维亚的百日咳疫情,苏丹、智利、孟加拉国、萨摩亚和法属波利尼西亚的登革热疫情,马拉维、埃塞俄比亚、津巴布韦、尼日利亚、阿富汗、巴西和科摩罗的霍乱疫情,索马里、南苏丹、也门、刚果(金)、乍得和尼日利亚的脊髓灰质炎疫情,美国、柬埔寨和刚果(金)和刚果(布)的猴痘疫情,俄罗斯、布基纳法索、吉尔吉斯斯坦、伊拉克、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、阿富汗的麻疹疫情,阿根廷的鹦鹉热疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in April 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In April 2024, 29 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 43 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 27 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 22 high-risk events and 33 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in some countries in North and South America, Africa, Oceania, and Asia, mpox in Cambodia and America, cholera in Ethiopia, Yemen, and Mozambique, yellow fever in Brazil, chikungunya fever in Brazil and Argentina, whooping cough in Georgia, the Czech Republic, Russia, and Latvia, and measles in Russia. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Asian countries around China (Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Nepal, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Singapore), Mali, Argentina, Brazil, France and Peru, cholera outbreak in Yemen, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique, chikungunya fever outbreaks in Argentina and Brazil, Lassa fever in Nigeria, the scarlet fever in Armenia and yellow fever in Brazil, and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by the whooping cough outbreaks in Georgia, the Czech Republic, Russia, and Latvia, dengue fever outbreaks in Sudan, Chile, Bangladesh, Samoa, and French Polynesia, cholera outbreaks in Malawi, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Brazil, and Comoros, polio outbreaks in Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad and Nigeria, mpox outbreaks in the United States, Cambodia and the Democratic Republic of Congo and Congo-Brazzaville, the measles outbreaks in Russia, Burkina Faso, Kyrgyzstan, Iraq, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Afghanistan, and the psittacosis in Argentina.

     

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