赵青, 庞明樊, 房元圣, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 纪瀚然, 张亦弛, 薛秀丽, 孙静, 滕岱君, 戚晓鹏. 2024年5月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(6): 677-680. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202406180365
引用本文: 赵青, 庞明樊, 房元圣, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 纪瀚然, 张亦弛, 薛秀丽, 孙静, 滕岱君, 戚晓鹏. 2024年5月全球传染病事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(6): 677-680. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202406180365
Zhao Qing, Pang Mingfan, Fang Yuansheng, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Ji Hanran, Zhang Yichi, Xue Xiuli, Sun Jing, Teng Daijun, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in May 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(6): 677-680. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202406180365
Citation: Zhao Qing, Pang Mingfan, Fang Yuansheng, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Ji Hanran, Zhang Yichi, Xue Xiuli, Sun Jing, Teng Daijun, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in May 2024[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(6): 677-680. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202406180365

2024年5月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in May 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年5月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果  2024年5月监测到12种传染病在全球36个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,低风险事件39个;海外旅行风险方面,中风险事件32个。
    结论 建议一般关注南美洲、非洲和亚洲部分国家的登革热,埃塞俄比亚、刚果(金)、津巴布韦、喀麦隆、科摩罗、索马里和莫桑比克的霍乱,刚果(金)、泰国、印度尼西亚和南非的猴痘,安哥拉、乍得、阿富汗、尼日利亚、也门、埃塞俄比亚、几内亚、巴基斯坦、刚果(金)、尼日尔的脊髓灰质炎,玻利维亚的黄热病,刚果(金)的埃博拉出血热,也门的白喉可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,无重点关注疫情,建议出国旅行者一般关注中国周边亚洲国家(孟加拉国、新加坡、老挝、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、泰国、柬埔寨、越南、马来西亚、印度尼西亚)、巴西、阿根廷、危地马拉和布基纳法索的登革热疫情,莫桑比克、埃塞俄比亚、刚果(金)、喀麦隆、科摩罗、索马里和津巴布韦的霍乱疫情,安哥拉、乍得、阿富汗、尼日利亚、也门、埃塞俄比亚、几内亚、巴基斯坦、刚果(金)和尼日尔的脊髓灰质炎,刚果(金)、泰国、印度尼西亚的猴痘、吉尔吉斯斯坦和印度的炭疽,刚果(金)的埃博拉出血热,沙特阿拉伯的中东呼吸综合征,也门的白喉,美国的H5N1高致病性禽流感,玻利维亚的黄热病可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in May 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In May 2024, 12 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 39 low-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 32 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in some countries in South America, Africa, and Asia, cholera in Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Comoros, Somalia, and Mozambique, monkey pox in Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Africa, polio in Angola, Chad, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen, Ethiopia, Guinea, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, yellow fever in Bolivia, Ebola hemorrhagic fever in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and diphtheria in Yemen. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Asian countries around China (Bangladesh, Singapore, Laos, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia), Brazil, Argentina, Guatemala, and Burkina Faso, cholera outbreak in Mozambique, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Comoros, Somalia, and Zimbabwe, Polio in Angola, Chad, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen, Ethiopia, Guinea, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, mpox in Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand, Indonesia, anthrax in Kyrgyzstan and India, Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Democratic Republic of Congo, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome in Saudi Arabia, diphtheria in Yemen, highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in the United States, and yellow fever in Bolivia.

     

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