Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China,January 2018

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency which might occur in mainland of China or be imported from the outside of mainland China in January 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or infectious diseases of January 2018 would be higher than January 2017,mainly caused by the increase of seasonal influenza,chickenpox,and mumps outbreaks among students,however,the outbreaks in school would go down quickly during the winter vocation. The activity of seasonal influenza would still on the rise,and peak in the late January and early February. There may be some sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza. Viral diarrhea outbreaks caused by norovirus and other enteroviruses would continue to occur. Severe air-pollution and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning are all in their high seasons. The risks of importation to mainland China of middle east respiratory syndrome from Saudi Arabia, diphtheria from Yemen and Bangladesh, and yellow fever from Nigeria are expected to be low. Conclusion It is expected that the public health emergencies in mainland China in January 2018 will rise. Particular concern should be paid to the seasonal influenza, human infection with avian influenza, and nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning which might constitute public health emergencies. Close attention should be paid to viral diarrhea outbreaks and severe air-pollution. There is no concerned public health emergency outside the mainland China.