Epidemiology of bacillary dysentery in Huzhou, Zhejiang, 1995-2007

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological features and incidence trend of bacillary dysentery in Huzhou from 1995 to 2007. MethodsDescriptive analysis was conducted on the data of bacillary dysentery during this period. Circular distribution was used to obtain the peak time of incidence and the exponential-curve model was developed to forecast the incidence trend of bacillary dysentery. ResultsThe average incidence rate of bacillus dysentery was 58.80/lakh from 1995 to 2007 and the incidence rate in urban area was highest. Most cases were scattered children and people from rural area. Most cases occurred in summer and autumn and the incidence peaked on August 25. The exponential-curve model was=Ie/Isup242.5304－0.1192Ix/I/sup, which could be used to forecast the incidence trend of bacillary dysentery. ConclusionFrom 1995, the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery declined year by year in Huzhou. Comprehensive control measure should be taken toreduce the incidence in children and in summer and autumn.