Construction of ARIMA model on the incidence rate of dysentery in Taiyuan

Objective The present study was designed to construct the ARIMA model for predicting the incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan. Methods To do Curve fit according to the monthly incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan from 1994 to 2003, modify the parameters of ARIMA in accordance with the incidence of dysentery from 2004 to 2006 and establish the predictive equation to predict the incidence of dysentery from 2007 to 2008. Results The ARIMA model was ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12, predictive equation(1-0.63692827B)(1-B12)yt=(1-0.69684797B12)et , predicting that the trend of the incidence of dysentery during 2007 to 2008 in Taiyuan would decline. Conclusion The forecasting effect of ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 is appropriate in short-term prediction of the incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan.