Study of the impact of meteorological factors to respiratory tract diseases and the prediction model

Objective　To study the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of respiratory tract diseases and establish an optimal prediction model for the incidence of the diseases. Methods　The meteorological data and the incidence data of respiratory tract diseases in Huzhou in 2006 were collected for Spearman correlation analysis. The prediction model was established by automatic interaction detectors (AID). Results　Correlation analysis revealed that the incidence of respiratory tract diseases was correlated with the minimum temperature, water-vapor pressure, relative humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation and sunshine duration. The weekly prediction model of meteorological factors to respiratory tract diseases with three warning levels was set up with the fit value IR/Isup2/sup=0.3857. Conclusion Meteorological factors were closely related to the incidence of respiratory tract diseases. The weekly warning/prediction model is feasible.