Application of the autoregressive integrated moving average model model for warning of paratyphoid

Objective　The study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of the time series autoregressive integrated movingaverage model(ARIMA) model in early warning of paratyphoid. Methods　ARIMA modeling was established based on the weekly morbidity of paratyphoid in Hangzhou city reported by the National Disease Report Management System in SAS 9.0. Results　Athird order regression model AR (3) of the incidence sequence of paratyphoid was developed and the early warning curves plotted. As a result, an outbreak of paratyphoid in July 2007 was predicted in a timely manner. Conclusion　The model can be applied for early warning of paratyphoid, promoting the epidemic prevention and control.