Time series analysis on bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Dongcheng district, Beijing

ObjectiveTo determine the impact of changes in meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, in order to initially establish an early prediction model of bacillary dysentery. MethodsA seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed to analyze the correlation between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Dongcheng district. ResultsThe incidence of bacillary dysentery was significantly correlated with the average temperature, average relative humidity, average atmospheric pressure, precipitation, sunshine hours and average wind speed in Dongcheng district. The SARIMA (1,0,1) (0,0,1)sub12/sub early prediction model revealed that the mean temperature, average relative humidity and precipitation were correlated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery. ConclusionVarious meteorological factors such as the temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were correlated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Dongcheng district, which thereby could be used as predictive indicators of the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Dongcheng district.