Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Lishui city, Zhejiang province 2007 - 2009

Objective To determine the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Lishui and to assess the prevalence trend of this disease in a timely manner. Methods A descriptive epidemiologic approach was employed to analyze the surveillance data and establish a back-propagation neural network model for epidemic prediction. Results The cumulative reported number of HFMD cases had reached 6139 in Lishui since 2007 till 2009 with an average annual incidence rate of 81.10／lakh, and significant difference was suggested in the incidence rate between individual years (P0.01). The patients were distributed throughout the counties and districts of the city. The highest incidence was in the most economically developed counties, mainly Liandu district, where the incidence was 596.80／lakh. Most cases were found from May to October, accounting for 80.38%. Children aged below five years were mostly affected, consisting of mainly scattered and kindergarten children. The predicted numbers of cases from January to June in 2010 were 17, 17, 20, 100, 181 and 679, respectively. Conclusion Significant differences were found in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease between different time, regions, sexes and ages, in addition to the rising trend of the epidemic prevalence. The predicted epidemic situation for 2010 was similar to those in 2007 - 2009.