Mathematical modeling on relationship between cholera and meteorological factors in Nanchang

Objective To analyze the relationship between cholera epidemic and meteorological factors in Nanchang from 1998 to 2007, and predict the incidence of cholera by mathematical model based on meteorological factors. Methods The average monthly incidence of cholera and meteorological factors, including average temperature, atmosphere pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed and hours with sunshine, were collected, and the Curveexpert1.3 and SPPS 11.5 were used for the fitting and analyzing the model. The best model was chosen according to relevant parameters. Results The average monthly incidence of cholera showed positive correlation with the average temperature and sunshine hours and negative correlation with the average atmosphere pressure. The curve was well-fitting between the average monthly incidence of cholera and the average temperature. The Gunary model could be used to predict the incidence of cholera, however, the linear regression model could explain only about 37.4% of cholera incidence after ruling out collinearity and confounding factors. Conclusion The well fitting of the model and the explaining degree on the relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera indicated that the model could be used to analyze the relationship between cholera incidence and temperature in real-time and suggest the possibility of the outbreak; but the modeling result should be analyzed according the actual situation to make judgement.