Comparison of the effects of the automatic early-warning information system of infectious diseases and spatial-temporal clustering analysis in predicting rubella outbreaks in Jinzhou district, Dalian city

Objective To evaluate and compare the effects of the automatic early-warning information system of infectious diseases and spatial-temporal clustering analysis in predicting outbreaks Jinzhou district, Dalian city. Methods The early-warning information of rubella in 2009 was studied to compare the results of the early-warning system and spatial-temporal clustering analysis in terms of the sensitivity, specificity, false positive and false negative rates. Results The sensitivity, specificity, false positive and false negative rates of the automatic early-warning information system of infectious diseases was 100%,20.37%,0 and 79.63%, respectively; while the above indexes of spatial-temporal clustering analysis were 95.65%,56.25%,4.35% and 43.75%, respectively. Conclusion The automatic early-warning information system of infectious diseases has a positive rate of only 21.10%, and its specificity, false positive rate and cases coverage are relatively inferior to the corresponding performance of spatial-temporal clustering analysis.