Prediction of dysentery incidence by regression analysis in Shijiazhuang municipality

Objective To predict the incidence trend of dysentery in Shijiazhuang and provide scientific evidence for the development of prevention and control measures. Methods Quadratic polynomial fitting was made on the incidence of dysentery from 2001 to 2009 by using Excel software, and extrapolative prediction of incidence of dysentery in 2010 was made based on the established equation, the changing trend was analyzed. Results The established prediction model of the incidence of dysentery from 2001 to 2009 is y=0.4748x2-8.8683x+60.542, with the coefficient of determination R2 of 0.9288. The model fits well. Conclusion The incidence of dysentery declined steadily in recent years in Shijiazhuang, the incidence of dysentery was predicted to be 19.3390/lakh in 2010.