Spatial-temporal scan statistic on scarlet fever cases in Beijing, 2005 - 2010

Objective To understand the spatial and temporal distributions and the clustering areas of scarlet fever in Beijing from 2005 to 2010, and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control. Methods The spatial-temporal scan statistic was conducted with SaTScan9.0 software and scarlet fever clusters were showed with ArcGIS9.3 software. Results The incidence of scarlet fever was high from April 2005 to January 2007 in Beijing by temporal scan statistic . The most likely cluster was found in southwestern Beijing by both spatial scan statistic and spatial-temporal scan statistic with statistical significance (RR=1.78 for spatial scan statistic, P0.001, RR=2.07 for spatial-temporal scan statistic, P0.001). The secondary disease clusters were found in Yanqing and Changping counties in northwestern Beijing by spatial scan statistic (RR=1.50, P0.001). The sub-clusters were found in other areas. Conclusion Spatial-temporal scan statistic is fit to analyze the clusters of scarlet fever in Beijing. The clusters can be displayed intuitively and comprehensively by geographic information system, which could provide valuable information for the disease prevention and control.