Application of ARIMA model in predicting tuberculosis incidence in Jiangxi

Objective To explore the feasibility of time series model to predict the incidence of infectious diseases, predict the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Jiangxi province with ARIMA model and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and treatment of TB. Methods The incidence data of TB in Jiangxi from January 2006 to December 2010 were used to set up ARIMA model and the analyzed by using SAS 9.2. The predictive effect was evaluated. Results The case curve was not only with a long-term descending trend but also with annual seasonality. The relative optimum fitting model was ARIMA (0,1,1)* (0,1,1)12. Conclusion Model of multiple seasonal ARIMA can be used to appropriately predict the change of the TB incidence in short-term in Jiangxi.