Application of grey model in predicting pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in a military unit

Objective To explore the incidence pattern of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and predict its incidence by grey model in a military unit, and provide the theoretical evidence for health department in the development of prevention and control measure. Methods According to the incidence data of pulmonary TB in the military unit from 2001 to 2010, a predicting model of pulmonary TB incidence was built to carried out moderate and long term predicting research. Results The predicting model was X(1)(k+1)=-179.369 574e-0.049 677k+190.669 574, and the estimation test result of model was qualified and the model was capable in predicting moderate and long term pulmonary TB incidence. The predicting result indicated that the pulmonary TB incidence in the military unit would be 5.559/104,5.290/104,5.033/104 from 2011 to 2013. Conclusion The model is suitable for the prediction of pulmonary TB incidence in the military unit, which indicates that the annual incidence of pulmonary TB will decrease by 4.82% from 2011 to 2013.