Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, November 2013

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in November 2013. Methods Expert counsel was conducted on the incidence data of public health emergency and communicable diseases reported in China through different channels. Results According to the surveillance data of communicable disease and public health emergency, the incidence of public health emergency in November might be higher than October. Due to the cold weather in winter, the activity of avian influenza virus will increase, so the risk of human infection with H7N9 virus in China would increase too in the next few months if the pattern of poultry raising, trade and human exposure remain same. Although the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemic has not been considered as a public health emergency with international concern according to the WHO, the risk of importation of MERS-Coronavirus still exists in some provinces due to the Muslim's returning from Saudi Arabia in November. Coal-fired heating will be common in winter in northern China, the risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning will increase.Conclusion It is predicted that the incidences of public health emergency and communicable disease would be at higher levels in China in November 2013, which are similar to the same period in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance for human infection with A (H7N9) virus, MERS, seasonal influenza and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.