Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, December 2013

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2013. Methods The first video expert counsel conference between China CDC and provincial CDCs was conducted to analyze the incidence data of public health emergency or communicable diseases reported in China through different channels. Results According to the recent and previous communicable disease or public health emergency surveillance data, the incidence of public health emergency in December would decline. The activity of influenza in northern and southern China will continue to increase, and as the further decrease of temperature in winter, outpatient visits due to influenza like illness and positive detections of influenza virus would increase. More outbreaks would occur. Because of the unchanged patterns of poultry raising, trade and human exposure and cold climate, the risk of human infection with H7N9 virus in China would increase in the next few months. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) still poses threat to the public, but the risk is low. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemic has not been considered as a public health problem with international concern, and the risk of imported MERS caused outbreak is still low in China. Although the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) increased greatly from January to November in 2013, the incidence declined obviously in November compared with the same period in 2012, and the incidence would continue to decline in December. Coal-fired heating is common in winter in northern China, the risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergency or communicable disease would decline in China in December 2013, which is similar to the same period in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance for human infection with A (H7N9) virus, MERS, HFRS and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.