Prediction of monthly hand foot and mouth disease incidence in China by using autoregressive integrated moving average model

Objective To predict the monthly incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in the mainland of China by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD and more application of ARIMA model in communicable disease prevention and control. Methods According to the time series of reported monthly incidence of HFMD in China from 2008 to 2011, the ARIMA model predicting monthly HFMD incidence in China was established with the incidence of HFMD from January to July 2012 as demonstration data. Results The model predicting monthly incidence of HFMD in China is ARIMA (1,0,0,) (0,1,0)12, in which autoregressive (AR1) is 0.779 (t=7.315,PQ has no statistical significance (Ljung-Box Q=10.328, P=0.889) and residuals is the white noise. The average of the relative error between actual and predicted values from January to July in 2012 is 28.62% (maximum 44.57%, minimum 4.92%). Conclusion ARIMA can be used in the prediction of monthly HFMD incidence. More original data are needed in order to optimize the model.