Applicability of WSARE 3.0 algorithms in early warning of mumps outbreak in Shenzhen

Objective To evaluate the application of WSARE 3.0 algorithms in the early detection of communicable disease outbreaks in Shenzhen. Guangdong province. Methods The real-time surveillance and early warning of the incidence of mumps in Shenzhen in 2013 was conducted by using WSARE 3.0 algorithms based on Bayesian Network. Results WSARE 3.0 algorithm generated 28 abnormal signals of mumps cases with statistical significance in Shenzhen in 2013. including 2 tri-component abnormal signals and 16 double-component abnormal signals. The peak of early warning was during April-July. Three severe mumps outbreaks were detected in communities, in which 2 were reported as public health emergency. Fourteen signals were generated for the abnormal increase of mumps cases in a community. Conclusion WSARE 3.0 algorithms could timely detect abnormal change of mumps cases in some specific groups in some local areas and can be used in early warning of communicable diseases in Shenzhen.