Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, July 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in July 2014. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted on the surveillance data of public health emergency and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference for the discussion and evaluation. Results According to the analysis of the surveillance data, the incidence of public health emergency in July would decrease, and the major forms would be the outbreaks of hand foot and mouth disease, varicella, influenza, mumps, brucellosis and dengue fever, followed by food poisoning. Imported dengue fever has occurred in some areas recently and indigenous infections were reported in some areas in Guangdong province. It is predicted that the incidence peak would occur in the coming 3-4 months. The incidence of food poisoning caused by poisonous mushroom increased obviously in recent months and the incidence of food poisoning due to contaminated food at diner party in summer might increase, so it is necessary to further strengthen the prevention and control of cholera, typhoid and other infectious diarrheal diseases. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would remain at low level. The risk of imported Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) still exists, but large scale outbreak might not occur. Ebola virus disease epidemic occurred and lasted in western Africa in recent months, but the risk of the disease's spreading to China is considered to be low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergency or communicable disease in July would be similar to that in the same periods in previous years and start to decline. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for cholera, dengue fever or Chikungunya fever and food poisoning, as well as the risk of MERS and Ebola virus disease to China.