Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland China, October 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2014. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the previous surveillance data and incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be still high in October, similar to that in September. The risk of spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but according to the evaluation of current status of the epidemic and owing to prevention and control measures taken by China, the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is low. However, due to the high case fatality, the impact to the public health would be serious once the importation of the virus occurs. Dengue fever epidemic would last in the next 1-2 months, and the epidemic areas might expand. The situation is still challenging. Now it is the season of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and the incidence trend would be similar to those in previous years. The incidence of respiratory disease, such as influenza, mumps and varicela, would increase seasonally. Bacterial dysentery, viral diarrhea and other intestinal infections might still occur. October is the season to make a pilgrimage in Mecca, more Chinese would visit Saudi-Arabia, as the result, the risk of imported Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) exists. As the approaching of winter, the incidence of non occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase in northern China caused by coal-fired heating. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be high, similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of dengue fever and EVD.