Performance of automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Anshun, Guizhou,2008-2013

Objective To evaluate the performance of automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Anshun, Guizhou province during 2009-2013 and provide evidence for the improvement of the early warning system for the better prevention and control of communicable diseases. Methods The compile of related data was done by using Excel 2003 and descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the data collected. Results A total of 4059 outbreak signals of communicable diseases were generated by the early warning system during this period, involving 21 diseases. After preliminary evaluation, 393 suspected outbreaks were classified(9.68%), and 59 outbreaks were finally confirmed. The positive predicting value of the signals was 1.45%. The timely response rate of the early warning signals was 98.10%. The timely response rate varied with the types of early warning(91.45% for single disease early warning, 98.51% for time series early warning). Conclusion The performance of automatic early warning system for communicable diseases in Anshun was well, through which the timely early warning of communicable disease case clustering could be generated, but the positive predicting value of the signals was low and the timely response rate of the early warning signals by county or district CDC needs to be improved.