Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in China, November 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in November 2014. Methods An internet based experts counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the previous surveillance data and incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be still high in November, similar to that in October. The risk of spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but according to the evaluation of the current status of the epidemic and owing to the prevention and control measures taken by China, the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is low. However, due to the high case fatality of EVD, the impact to China's public health would be serious once the importation of the virus occurs. Human infections with influenza A (H7N9) virus were reported in Xinjiang and Jiangsu in October. Given the restart of live poultry trade in some southern provinces, human cases infected with H7N9 virus would increase. The size of dengue fever epidemic has become smaller and is not likely to rebound in November. The incidence of respiratory disease, such as influenza, would increase seasonally and the outbreaks might occur in schools and other public places. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating would increase in northern China during the winter. MERS-CoV cases have been reported for several consecutive days in Saudi Arabia and the case clustering have been observed in some areas recently. The risk of imported MERS still exists in China, but large scale outbreak might not occur. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be high in November, similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the EVD epidemic in western Africa and the human infection with H7N9 virus in China, and it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance for dengue fever, influenza and the risk of MERS to China.