Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, December 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in December 2014. Methods An internet based experts counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be still high in December, slightly higher than that in November. The risk of spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but according to the evaluation of the current status of the epidemic and owing to the prevention and control measures taken by China, the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is low. However, due to the high case fatality of EVD, the impact to China's public health would be serious once the importation of the virus occurs. Recently human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have been occurred in Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces (autonomous region). Live poultry markets were re-opened in several southern provinces, more cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would be occurred. Seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases are prone to occur now, and the outbreaks might occur in schools and other public places. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating would increase in northern China during the winter. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidecne of public health emergencies or communiicable diseases would be sllightly higher in December than in November 2014. It is necessary to pay close attention to the incidences of human infection with H7N9 virus and seasonal infeluenza, the outbreak of norovirus caused gastroenteritis in China and the impact of EVD epidemic in wertern Africa and EV-D68 outbreak in USA to China