Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China, February 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in February 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the previous surveillance data and incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be low in February. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. The sporadic human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and there might be reports of sporadic human infections with other avian influenza viruses. The incidence of seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases would increase seasonally. The outbreaks caused by norovirus and other gastroenteritis viruses might still occur in February and March. The incidence of scarlet fever is higher than that during the same period in 2014, but is lower than that in December 2014, and would keep to decline during the school's winter vocation. Measles outbreaks were reported in some provinces in January. The incidence of measles has kept rising since December 2014, and now it is higher compared with the same period in 2014. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would continue to occur. The sporadic cases of MERS-CoV are still being reported from Saudi Arabia and some other countries. The risk of imported MERS still exists in China, but the spread of the epidemic might not occur. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of national public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be low in China in February 2015, similar to that in same periods of previous years. Close attention should be paid to the EVD epidemic in western Africa, human infection with avian influenza virus, influenza and norovirus infection, as well as scarlet fever, measles and the risk of MERS to China.