Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in March 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in March than that in February, 2015. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. Sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and sporadic cases of other human infection of avian influenza virus might be reported. As the new semester started, common respiratory infections, including seasonal influenza, mumps, rubella and chicken pox, and food poisoning might occur in schools and child care settings. The activity of seasonal influenza would decrease as air temperatures rise. With the coming of measles season, the risk of local outbreaks would be high. The risk of importation of MERS to China still exists, but the possibility of MERS's transmission in China is very low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be high in March 2015, similar to the same period in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and preparedness for EVD, human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, measles and MERS.