Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, April 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in April than that in March, 2015. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. Sporadic cases of human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to occur, and sporadic cases of human infection with other avian influenza virus might be reported. As the rise of air temperature, the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase and some provinces might experience the sudden increase of cases, including severe cases and deaths, as the results of the change in predominant pathogen and abnormal climate. The risk of spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to China still exists, but the possibility of wide transmission in China is very low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in April than that in March in China in 2015. Close attention should be paid to EVD, human infection with avian influenza viruses, HFMD, MERS and food poisoning caused by poisonous plants.