Time series analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Fangshan District of Beijing

Objective To understand the relationship between meteorological factors and epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fangshan district of Beijing, and provide evidence for the establishment of HFMD early prediction model. Methods Seasonal autoregressive andmoving average (SARMA) model was used to evaluate the relationship between monthly HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. Results The incidence of HFMD was obviously correlated with the average air temperature, average relative humidity, average atmospheric pressure and precipitation in Fangshan. It was found that a 1℉ increase in air temperature would lead to a 27.51% increase of monthly HFMD incidence, a 1% increase in relative humidity would lead to a 12.40% increase of monthly HFMD incidence and a 100 Pa decrease in average atmospheric pressure would lead to a 1.36% increase of monthly HFMD incidence. The established early prediction model SARMA(0,1)(1,0)12 revealed that the average air temperature, average relative humidity and average atmospheric pressure were correlated with the incidence of HFMD. The model was used to predict the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan from January to August, 2014. Conclusion Meteorological factors, such as average air temperature, average relative humidity and average atmospheric pressure, were correlated with the incidence of HFMD, which can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan.