Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communiicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, July 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in July 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts of all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of public health emergencies and communicable diseases, it is predicted that the overall numbers of public health emergencies and communicable disease cases would be lower in July than in June, The transmission risks of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Ebola virus disease (EVD) into China still exist, but the possibilities of large scale spread are very low. As the come of midsummer, the incidences of insect-borne infectious diseases, such as dengue fever, and enteric infectious diseases, such as cholera and typhoid fever/paratyphoid fever would increase, which might result in local outbreaks in some provinces. Besides, the incidence of heatstroke might also increase and dining pattern in summer might cause more food poisoning events. Conclusion It is predicted that the numbers of public health emergencies and communicable disease cases would be lower in July than in June in China; and it is necesary to pay close attention to the prevention and control of dengue fever, typhoid fever/paratyphoid fever, cholera, heatstroke and food poisoning and the risk of the transmission of EVD and MERS to China.