Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue fever in the mainland of China, 2005-2013

Objective To understand the spatial temporal distribution of dengue fever epidemics in the mainland of China during 2005-2013. Methods Geographic information database was established by using the incidence data of dengue fever and demographic data reported in 27 provinces and 4 municipalities in China from 2005 to 2013. Global indication of spatial autocorrelation (GISA), local indication of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), and spatial-temporal clustering analysis were conducted with software GeoDa 1.2.0 and SaTScan 9.3 to determine high risk areas of dengue fever. Results A total of 8107 cases of dengue fever was reported in China during 2005-2013, the average annual incidence was 0.0682/lakh. The incidences in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces were much higher than those in other provinces. The incidence was highest in Guangdong province (0.5690/lakh). The clustering of the distribution of dengue fever was found. The annual GISA coefficient Moran's I were statistically different in 2005, 2007 and during 2010-2012. According to LISA analysis, the high-high area was in Guangdong province in 2005, 2007 and during 2010-2011, the high-high area was in Fujian province in 2005, 2007 and 2010 and the high-high area was in Hainan province during 2011-2012. No high-high areas were found in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2013. Spatial temporal clustering analysis showed that the most likely clustering was in Guangdong province (except 2005 and 2011), Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces (2008 and 2013), Fujian province (2007) and Zhejiang province (2009). Conclusion Obvious spatial temporal clustering of dengue fever distribution was found in the mainland of China. The clustering areas were mainly in Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian provinces, especially in Guangdong province.