Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China, October 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2015.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergency events and cases in October 2015 would be similar to those in September 2015. The risk of occurrence of continuous dengue outbreaks and spread in southern provinces especially in Guangdong and Yunnan remains high. The risk of importation of MERS to China still exists, but the possibility of MERS's large-scale transmission in China is low. Sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza viruses would increase. The incidence of respiratory diseases such as seasonal influenza, mumps and varicela would increase seasonally. Epidemic season of viral diarrhea caused by Norovirus would come. As the approaching of winter, the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by coal-fired heating would increase in northern China. During the vacation of National Day, health departments should strengthen infectious disease surveillance, health supervision and emergency duty work.Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October 2015 would be similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of dengue, MERS, human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, and viral diarrhea.