Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China, February 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in February 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in February would be the lowest in 2016. More cases of human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would occur, and sporadic cases of human infection with other animal influenza virus might also occur. The activity of seasonal influenza would be at high level and might reach the peak in February. It is possible to detect imported cases of Zika virus disease in China, but the risk of its further transmission is very low because of the low density of Aedes in winter. The risk of importation of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) to China still exists, but the possibility of MERS's large-scale transmission is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by improper coal-fired heating would continue to be high. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be the lowest in February 2016, similar to that during the same period in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, and Zika virus disease.