Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in March 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in March than that in February 2016. More imported Zika virus infection cases would be found and autochthonous Zika virus transmission might occur in Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang provinces. More sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and other animal influenza virus would occur. The activity of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase seasonally. The risk of importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to China still exists, but the possibility of large-scale transmission in China is very low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in March would be higher than that in February 2016, similar to that in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of Zika virus infection, human infection of avian influenza virus, HFMD and MERS.