Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland China, April 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in April 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher than that in March 2016. More imported cases of vector-bone diseases, including yellow fever, Zika virus infection, dengue and chikungunya, would continue to be found and autochthonous transmission or small clusters might occur in Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang provinces, where the vector surveillance and control should be strengthened. The activity of seasonal influenza would remain at a high level; however, with the increase of the temperature, the incidence of seasonal influenza would decline gradually. More sporadic cases of human infection with H7N9 virus would occur, and sporadic cases of human infection with other animal influenza viruses might occur too. The activity of hand foot and mouth disease (HMFD) would increase gradually with more severe cases and deaths. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease and Middle East respiratory syndrome to China still exists, but the possibility of large-scale transmission in China is very low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in April would be higher than that in March 2016, similar to the same period in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of Zika virus infection, yellow fever, seasonal influenza, human infection with avian influenza viruses and HFMD.