Application of ARIMA model in prediction of hand foot and mouth disease in Baoji City

Objective To analyze the incidence trends of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) dynamically, explore the appropriate HFMD predictive model and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD in Baoji. Methods Time series analysis wasconducted by using the monthly incidence data of HFMD in Baoji from 2008 to 2014, and a predictive model was established after parameter estimation and model evaluation. The model was used to predict the incidence of HFMD during January-June 2015. Results Through the test of parameters and goodness as well as white-noise residuals, we finalized the model ARIMA(1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12, R2=0.820, of which BIC(Bayeian Information Criterion)=10.507, Ljung-Box=4.631, P=0.995.The average relative error between the predictive value and the actual value of the monthly incidence of HFMD during January-June in 2015 was 2.34%.The actual values were within 95%CI of the predictive values. The established ARIMA model was good in fitting precision and prediction effect. Conclusion The model could predict the incidence trend of HFMD for early warning of the disease.