Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2016

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October would be similar to that in September in 2016. The risk of continuous local dengue outbreaks in southern provinces remains high. Both the risk of importation of Zika virus disease to China and the risk of the local transmission following the importation of the disease would increase, but the risk of importation of yellow fever would decrease. The possibility of importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) from Saudi Arabia still exists. The sporadic human infection with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza viruses might be still reported in October. The incidences of enteric infectious diseases, such as viral diarrhea, would be still high. The incidence of respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza, mumps and varicella, would increase seasonally. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October 2016 would be similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika virus disease and yellow fever, human infection with avian influenza virus, viral diarrhea and seasonal influenza.